July 2010 Roundup

Howdy Redfinnians!

It's time for the monthly round-up of everything that moved in the real estate market! The short story is that the real estate market is stagnant, mostly because home-buyers can't get credit, and sellers can't get enough money for their house to pay off the bank.

The Case-Shiller index published on Tuesday showed home prices increasing across the board in May 2010:

But that doesn't tell the story of what has happened since then: sales volume for existing homes declined 5.1% in June, and we believe prices in most markets are now stagnant or declining. We particularly worry that California prices are over-heating: annual increases of 13% in San Diego and 20% in the Bay Area don't seem sustainable.

But a lot has changed since May, which Case-Shiller hasn't accounted for yet. Sales have been declining due to a hangover from the federal tax credit that expired April 30. Tax-credit deals were still closing in May, but not many in June.

New Home Sales Bounce 24%

We argued last month the hangover will last all year, there has been some positive news: the number of new contracts signed by home-builders bounced from an apocalyptic low in May, to increase by 24% in June. Since new-construction contracts take months to close, this increase is an early indicator that demand isn't in free-fall. That said, we'd feel even better about it if the Commerce Department didn't have a habit of lowering each month's estimate in a subsequent re-statement.

A Lull in Closings, But Early-Stage Demand at Redfin Stronger Than Ever

In our business, the number of customers signing offers is down 40% from one frenzied week during the tax-credit peak, but up 6% compared to the last four weeks. What's surprising is that the number of folks touring properties is at historic highs -- normally this late in the summer, early-stage activity begins to decline. The buyers we're working with now are in no rush, so demand will take a while to recover.

Many of our more languid buyers complain that the quality of listings on the market just isn't that great, mostly leftovers from whatever didn't sell this spring. We're certainly seeing sellers making more concessions at the inspection, so long as you get a contractor to provide a reliable estimate. But we're also putting more listings on the market than ever, also unusual this late in the season.

Foreclosures Continue to Decline: Have Banks Lost Their Nerve?

Another reason listing quality will improve is that foreclosures, while still high by any historical standard, have begun to decline, with a 3% drop in foreclosure filings from May to June. This data is also mixed, with increases in some states as others decline, and conflicting claims from different data providers about the nationwide trend. What we have noticed is that even when there is a foreclosure filing, banks aren't always going through with it, instead encouraging troubled borrowers to sell their own home in a short sale. In Seattle for example, June foreclosur e filings increased, but much faster than foreclosure auctions. We've also noticed anecdotally, that the historically miniscule number of borrowers who worked out a payment plan with lenders has modestly increased.

It will take us years to work through the supply of foreclosed homes -- and years for sellers who want to sell to see prices that will allow them to pay off their mortgage -- this will slow a recovery, but long-term we think we're beyond the hemorrhagic increases in distressed inventory that drove the big price drops in the market.

Buyers Can't Get Credit

The problem now is fewer buyers. Unemployment is nearly 10%. And even though money is cheap, most people can't get it. It will be years before folks who've gone through a foreclosure or short-sale will be able to borrow again, and lenders are punishing borrowers with a credit score below 740. Cash investors are responsible for more activity than usual, exploiting what is essentially a credit arbitrage opportunity in the low-end market, getting bargains because many of their would-be competitors don't qualify for a loan.

Interest Rates Still Low

Until a lot of consumers jump into the market, we won't see any major price increases. Many folks in the real estate industry believe that nobody will get off the dime until mortgage interest rates take their first nasty jump. Last week, rates reached historic lows of 4.56%:

And that's a wrap on another newsletter. As usual, we'll post this sucka up on our blog for public comment, or you can just write back with private questions. I try to answer every one.

Best, Glenn

Glenn Kelman | CEO, Redfin